Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 13.680429 16.725253 20.132154 24.203741 28.913243 34.165058 40.439158
2025-03-23 9.536047 13.507838 18.467611 25.011597 33.304493 43.344491 56.287003
2025-03-30 6.838722 10.954535 16.573382 24.579334 35.439780 49.388600 68.348220
2025-04-06 5.618819 9.957947 16.321220 25.944684 39.684865 58.112090 84.126048
2025-04-13 3.957364 7.859802 14.052063 24.031556 39.057172 60.111377 90.975332
2025-04-20 3.232502 7.059576 13.535004 24.508772 41.722002 66.653599 104.238992
2025-04-27 2.712260 6.477057 13.235753 25.219091 44.706161 73.752493 118.601240
2025-05-04 2.331220 6.055803 13.118256 26.161571 48.061188 81.531596 134.289854
2025-05-11 1.964846 5.566379 12.783787 26.662145 50.699188 88.329911 148.820516
2025-05-18 1.593990 4.962348 12.122212 26.481223 52.155000 93.336431 160.846313
2025-05-25 1.227590 4.253139 11.118437 25.527847 52.178218 96.028884 169.392807
2025-06-01 0.974446 3.743738 10.426904 25.054510 52.949143 99.902568 179.883381
2025-06-08 0.675361 3.011611 9.157625 23.400078 51.693125 100.763568 186.330828
2025-06-15 0.567074 2.815651 9.099139 24.238087 55.145143 109.817382 206.621191
2025-06-22 0.426625 2.436351 8.497758 23.820178 56.156097 114.724560 220.327094
2025-06-29 0.376174 2.365488 8.679882 25.151926 60.665090 125.965992 245.068319
2025-07-06 0.244045 1.864461 7.547324 23.286344 58.602880 125.377180 249.756810
2025-07-13 0.197966 1.720012 7.407054 23.751640 61.327995 133.572043 269.833442
2025-07-20 0.164486 1.615292 7.362804 24.444296 64.575875 142.882897 292.214431
2025-07-27 0.140044 1.543035 7.406201 25.363488 68.371960 153.392281 317.094894
2025-08-03 0.113647 1.433097 7.292558 25.851760 71.255945 162.301710 339.455322
2025-08-10 0.085156 1.273053 6.952412 25.675279 72.636838 168.382549 356.957250
2025-08-17 0.057316 1.070045 6.377582 24.745404 72.210493 170.902495 368.071739